The explosive rise of post-quantum cryptography in emerging markets marks a paradigm shift in data security. As these markets continue to grow and embrace digital technologies, the demand for robust and quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions will only intensify. Embracing the potential of post-quantum cryptography today will secure the digital foundations of tomorrow.
In the near future, quantum computers will possess the power to crack widely used encryption methods, leading to what some call the “quantum apocalypse.” To counter this threat, NIST is diligently working on establishing post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards, which are anticipated to be fully implemented by 2024. Recently, IQT Research released a comprehensive report titled “Post-Quantum Cryptography 2023: Market Opportunities After NIST,” projecting revenues of approximately $450 million from PQC in 2023, with a significant portion stemming from service offerings. The forecast predicts this figure will soar to $6.7 billion by 2032.
Developing PQC encryption standards has involved careful consideration of several factors, such as resilience against attacks, cipher text size, computational efficiency, simplicity, flexibility, and ease of adoption. While NIST remains the central authority for PQC standards, other influential organizations such as NSA, Department of Homeland Security, IETF, Cloud Security Alliance, ETSI, IEEE, ITU, and ANSI X9 also contribute to the process.
Taking into account the impact of COVID-19 and current economic conditions, IQT Research’s report examines the addressable market for PQC products. The study features a sophisticated forecasting model for PQC shipments, analyzing a range of products from crypto libraries and specialized PQC software to PQC-enabled browsers, chips, and HSMs.
Additionally, the report delves into various PQC-related services, including PQC clouds, VPNs, and PQC-as-a-service. It offers insightful ten-year forecasts for different end-user groups, spanning tape drives, disaster recovery facilities, web browsers, 5G/6G, IoT, financial services, healthcare, the military, police and intelligence communities, machine tools, and the cybersecurity industry. The report also includes profiles of approximately 30 key players in the PQC market, highlighting their product/market strategies.
By 2032, the largest expenditures for PQC products and services are expected to come from PQC services ($2.7 billion) and web browsers (just over $1 billion), with disaster recovery applications closely following web browsers. However, a complete transition to PQC will take time, and it will be several years before PQC algorithms fully replace current encryption methods.
Presently, the availability of PQC products is limited, primarily comprising libraries, firmware updates, hardware modules, and a few services for simple quantum-safe security. As NIST finalizes PQC standards, the market for PQC products is expected to diversify, leading to a greater demand for specialized advice and services from cybersecurity firms. In the future, PQC may find applications in areas like IoT and factories, where cybersecurity is weak but increasingly crucial.
IQT Research, a division of 3DR Holdings, stands as the first industry analyst firm exclusively focused on the quantum technology sector. Apart from publishing reports, Inside Quantum Technology, a part of 3DR Holdings, delivers daily news on business-related developments in the quantum technology field. Moreover, they host the Inside Quantum Technology conferences, and the forthcoming event, dedicated to quantum cybersecurity, communications, and sensors, is scheduled for October 24-26, 2023, in New York City.
By Sheharyar 
